There is still much mystery surrounding Brian Laundrie’s disappearance, which has already lasted nearly a month as of Monday.
Laundrie’s parents informed police that they last saw him on September 13 and that he may have gone on a trek in Florida’s Carlton Reserve. Due to their testimony, the reserve is now being thoroughly searched for Laundrie, a suspect in the murder of Gabby Petito.
But a police department representative in North Port, Florida recently told Brian Entin of NewsNation Now that no evidence of Laundrie has been discovered in the vast, swampy nature preserve.
Jeanis, whose work focuses on missing persons and teenage runaways, said, “It’s impossible to say the likelihoods, but generally speaking, we know that the likelihood that a traditional missing person is returned safe after this period of time, a month, is rare.”
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According to her, “Most People Who go Missing either Return Swiftly or are Found Deceased.”
Jeanis added that the investigation of a missing adult is made more complicated by the lack of a uniform approach. North Port police have reported no sightings of Laundrie in the reserve, but official investigations have only been done there.
Former FBI agent and associate professor of criminology at the University of South Florida Bryanna Fox concurred that the longer a person goes missing, the less likely it is that they will be found alive.
“The second issue is that every day that a person is out, not in their home, their danger of victimisation and mortality greatly increases,” Fox continued. “Even if the person is not dodging law enforcement while on the run, they still have basic needs and will have to take risks in order to meet them. All of these factors add to the mounting concern that we won’t discover [Laundrie] in good shape after all this time has passed.”
Fox added that those who are able to evade authorities for long periods of time typically “do a fairly premeditated crime and spend a lot of time studying and preparing for what it would look like after they conduct the crime, so they know how to get away with it.”
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Fox elaborated, saying, “The idea that someone who was allegedly engaged in a crime that was heat of the moment, not necessarily premeditated, that it was their first offence, that they didn’t have a lot of experience with the criminal justice system…would then make no mistakes and leave no trace behind, is possible but very unlikely.”
After that, she said, “If he is alive, I think that ultimately they will find him.”
Canterbury said that it would be difficult to determine how long he could survive without knowing specifics about his skill level, the tools he had access to in the Carlton Reserve, or whether or not he is even in the Carlton Reserve at all. “A well-prepared individual, however, has a good chance of surviving for a long time. Incalculably more time than what has already passed.”
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DeJong speculated that with a few years of experience, “and again we’re talking about professional-level expertise here,” the man may extend his career by a few years.
Even if Laundrie is still in the Carlton Reserve, DeJong is confident that “it’s going to be a recovery and not a capture.”